Tachiai estimate, since 2016 — not an official ranking. Exact rank matches were thin, so this includes neighboring numbers (±1).
Only 6 comparable cases since 2016 (need 8 for a range). Treat this as a thin sample, not a forecast.
- Y1
- O1
- S1
- K1
- M1
- M8
- M17
- J1
- J14
M3 now · median M15 · typical M4–J1. Higher on the sheet is left.
Outcome buckets
sample: since 2016, 6 cases
- Promote0%
- Same band33.3%
- Demote66.7%
Next rank
sample: since 2016, 6 cases
- M216.7%
- M416.7%
- M1316.7%
- M1516.7%
- J133.3%